Wind Crux LorraineTier 1
at Collinsville Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.0% | 9 | 8-0-1 | 94.4% | 80.8% | 79.0% | +13.4 |
| Water Fractal | 15.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.6% | +2.6 |
| Water Genbu | 7.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.4% | +4.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 66.9% | +9.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.5% | +2.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Wind Allies | 3.9% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +7.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.9% | +22.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.2% | -12.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Fire Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.3 |
| Wind Exia | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Wind Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tactful Sergeant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |